African libertarians need to revisit their classics..
January 31, 2008
Franklin Cudjoe, editor of African Liberty, a CATO-sponsored african libertarian platform offers us yet another of those convulted long essays mixing up a bunch of different arguments in order to attack some government policy. The policy, a plan to directly give $8 to $15 every month to the poorest Ghaneans, is described as a “centrally-plannest waste”.
See, as far as I know, the libertarian critic of central planning is that markets, the sum of individual decisions, are the most efficient way to allocate ressources. And that’s why, if there has to be social policy, poverty-alleviation measures, direct cash transfers are usually prefered to more market-disrupting measures.
School vouchers, for instance, are considered a better way to provide education to the poorest than public schools. After all giving vouchers or money directly to the poor is trusting individuals to make their own decisions instead of governments inefficiently allocating ressources. That’s why I’m confused when I read:
"How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production? Train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?"
My guess is not much. But then again, that’s because I’m one of those socialist/collectivists/statists Cudjoe is supposed to rant about. One who think that government intervention, via infrastructure, via education, via fertilizer subsidies, would work faster and may be better than market-based allocation. However if you value freedom, liberty and all that, why would one be concerned about how the money is used. And why would one think the energic rural youth would flock to the cities and not use their cash to buy agricultural inputs, build storage facilities, roads or invest in training ? Isn’t that the magic of the market ?
So yeah, I’m disappointed. Can’t the western libertarian network find smarter and more principled writers and thinkers to promote their cause in Africa ? May be, we’d get some interesting debates and may be one or two good policy initiatives could be squeezed out of it.
PS: to be fair, most of the article is dedicated to describing make-work schemes, utilities subsidies and other programs that are more deserving of libertarian attack but I did call it a “convulted long essay mixing up a bunch of different arguments” for a reason.
One Response to “African libertarians need to revisit their classics..”
Mbelolo Says: January 31, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Cudjoe has not read his Milton Friedman, perhaps. See http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text88_p.html
Franklin Cudjoe Says: February 1, 2008 at 12:08 am
Thanks for taking time to read my “convulutedlong essay”. You actually just made it to the list of those disoriented propagandists.
You confused your socialist dimented position because you failed to take into consideration all the 12 preceding paragraphs to your quote. You would have been a bad student of English summary if you were in a serious class.
“How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production?, train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?.”
You said “However if you value freedom, liberty and all that, why would one be concerned about how the money is used. And why would one think the energic rural youth would flock to the cities and not use their cash to buy agricultural inputs, build storage facilities, roads or invest in training ? Isn’t that the magic of the market ?”
I’m sorry, but freedom and liberty does not give any one the excuse to make foolish decisions especially when the money to be freely distributed here is borrowed in a people’s name and without any serious baseline data or indeed any reasonable criteria to select the poor people? Would it go to ohousehold heads? Come on, even my illiterate grand mum laughed at the suggestion as she grimaced ” yeah, there are a lot of drunks who will just spend the money on booze”.
See, its just simplistic to argument that rural folks will accumulate $8 to $15 every two months to invest in agriculture, when they do not even own the land on which they will attempt to farm, or even if they did, would they be able to cart their peasantry produce to the markets since many roads are just filled with pot holes.
Do you appreciate the value of decentralized decision making at all? You attempt to be smart by suggesting school vouchers. Thats okay, but these so called collectivist/socialist thinkers, including those who advised government knew of vouchers anyway. But then the real reason as many Ghanaians who are the legitimate assessors of this useless policy know it is an elctoral gimmick as we have crucial votes this year.
Let me reiterate again thatthe market is a process and bound to make mistakes. Even that we expect sensible regulations from government. But seriously, putting all the isms aside, do you seriously think this is the best way out? Aba?? just for three years?? and then what? the beneficiaries ceases to exist? even you don’t expect your father to live forever. We must be clear not to confuse philathropy with serious development issues. You see we in Ghana even under socialist administrations have seen the unitended consequences fo these utopian ideals and left many worse than they were before.
Come to Ghana and I will take you around and ask simple villagers about how they ababdoned their dremas becasue fo governmnet free money and what happened to them later. A stranger has wide eyes in deed!!!
Franklin Cudjoe Says: February 1, 2008 at 12:18 am
Sounds like a South African forum here. Oh I see, are you guys the ones exacting the eveils of apartheid with BEE? I now understand.
See, Mbelolo, I do not need to be a scholar of Friedman, Hayek or Adam Smith to come to terms with a stupid idea such as getting free money from government when I know it is indeed not free money but will come back as an albastross around our necks - I know it will make me dull, and when I don’t get any longer, i become a social misfit, drunk and produce vengeful street urchins who say in South Africa could add to the crime wave there. We in Ghana are trying to avoid such hell!
aflakete Says: February 1, 2008 at 3:37 am
“You confused your socialist dimented position because you failed to take into consideration all the 12 preceding paragraphs to your quote.”
No, not really. I ignored those 12 paragraphs because they were about other policies. A bit of focus from you guys would be nice for a change.
As far as the rest of what you said, well, it seems you don’t get what confused me. Do you think poverty alleviation and social policy should be done via direct government intervention ? Do you think this is the worse idea they came up with ? Worse than import substitution plans ? Worse than roads to nowhere ? Worse than building a dam with the hopes of jump-starting industrialisation ? Worse than industrial policy ? Worse than price controls and single-product subsidies ?
Mbelolo Says: February 1, 2008 at 3:53 am
Mr. Cudjoe, direct cash transfer is a concept with a respectable libertarian history, as discussed in the article I linked. For one example, Milton Friedman advocated a negative income tax, which would give money to those below a poverty threshhold.
You may wish to disagree with Hayek and Friedman on the subject, that’s certainly fine, but an acknowledgement of the libertarian history of the concept is in order.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Direct Cash for the Poor
Last Tuesday, Ghana's Minister for Employment and Manpower Development, Nana Akomea said a total US$ 20million has been earmarked to be disbursed to the country's poor. Each person or group would receive between $8 and $15 a day to be spent on food and water. The programme will be repeated in 2009 and 2010.
The decision is derived from the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy II which stipulates that the necessary social interventions must be put in place by government to ensure that direct cash is put into the pockets of the poor.
Clearly, this is very demeaning to the average Ghanaian who for almost eight years has been told his or her life has gotten better. I believe that the real people who need this sympathy are orphans, internally displaced persons, old and sick persons disowned by their families. Besides, philanthropy is already taking care of these people.
Read on....
Feature Article of Thursday, 31 January 2008 in Ghana web
Direct Cash for the Poor-Ghana's grand centrally planned waste.
Medieval Kings and Princes were naively convinced by alchemists that they could turn lead into gold. Even though the alchemists repeatedly failed, they received the support of the Kings and Princes and the joke continued until every one became fed up.
If the above was a fairy tale, be prepared for the greatest hoax of all time, being hatched in modern Ghana, allegedly one of the fastest reforming economies according to the World Bank.The decision by the Ghanaian government to make direct cash transfers of between $8- $ 15 every other month to those it solely identifies as poor, marginalized, vulnerable and weak has gotten the ire of many Ghanaians.
Particularly worrying is the state of mind of government advisors on this idea. Their magic wand to ending poverty evokes images of a cabal of hitherto intelligent academics whose leap of faith in deformed poverty reduction papers surpasses the tiny but useful bits of information on individual needs and wants in an economy. Such dispersed infinitesimal information is key to decision making, but not a centrally controlled one as giving direct cash to alleviate one's poverty, created by successive governments in the first place.
Eventually, because many African governments feed on populism rather than what works, our government will deliberately not see the enormity of its attempt to embrace what clearly is a failure.
The government's endorsement of such a plan means that they have little faith in some of the steps they confidently took in 2001 which saved us from a downward spiral. Then, the economy was in one word, stupid. Today, having navigated that tight rope which many African governments will want to catch a shadow of, the limited market-oriented policies that gave it a jolt is painfully being dumped in favour of a Chavez-Castro-Mugabe type economy. An economist has even suggested that the reason for government's about turn is because the market economy had brought in its wake untold hardships to the poor. So, collectivist countries like Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba have been cited as leaders in making direct cash to the poor. Even the US and the UK were cited as well.
But we all know the festering laziness and impoverishment such packages have caused among minority communities wherever they have been introduced. Supporters of this perverted economic theory are pointing to the near recession of the U.S economy and the government's response by infusing over US$140 billion into the economy. Yes, that's salvation, but then the cash will come in the form of tax cuts for some 100 million people who have been hit by the mortgage crisis. That's a far cry from making direct cash transfers.
Yes, the market is a process and likely to make mistakes which are self-correcting by the way, with occasional sensible regulation. But we must be mindful that a market economy supervised by crony capitalists has the same effect like that organized under a mafia.Besides if you pursue any economic system half-heartedly, you wouldn't reap its full results.
So, even though the current administration ostensibly supports a private sector-led economy, its taxation policies have simply been a cut and paste one. Apart from the myriad of double taxation we are burdened with on virtually everything edible, the very poor Ghanaians have been asked to pay air time tax on mobile phones. The talk time tax itself does not worry me, but what the proceeds are intended for--government supervised employment schemes, which obviously is another flamboyant voter gimmick. Government thwarts the efforts of public utility regulators when they set realistic tariffs with voter-induced subsidies and then fails to ensure that adequate transparent investments is made in the delivery of good sanitation, water and electricity. The inability of even urban residents to access these services adds to their poverty.
Granted the 'kindness' of government sees the light, how can we ensure that the money actually gets into the pockets of the identified people especially because of our not too transparent agencies? The government and its poor friends would be up against officials of Ministries, Departments and Agencies that have been alleged to misappropriate 443 billion cedis (over $46 million) last year alone aside the inability, in one instance, to provide documents to cover the purchase of 113 officials cars.
Discerning Ghanaians are asking other questions- so what happened to the millions saved in debt repayment after 80% of our debts were forgiven during the G8 Gleneagles summit in 2005? What happened to the handsome windfalls from world cocoa and gold prices? What happens to the myriad of taxes we pay? And what will happen to the Millennium Challenge Account money?
How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production?, train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?.
Opposition to the above suggestion will come from praise-singing propagandists who will attempt to say real decentralization of power and resources to every district in Ghana will not solve our problems as local knowledge is not sufficient to determine what is good for the locals.
If every district was allowed to determine its own economic agenda, there will indeed be no need for government parastatals to convince the President for instance, to assemble all his hard working ministers to organize a people's assembly in a region once a year to listen to personal problems of poor people that could have been solved by an empowered village town crier who the villagers themselves elect.To those propagandists who think this cannot work, I will recommend Thomas Sowell's book "Knowledge and Decisions".
Franklin Cudjoe is Executive Director of IMANI Center for Policy & Education and editor of www.AfricanLiberty.org
The decision is derived from the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy II which stipulates that the necessary social interventions must be put in place by government to ensure that direct cash is put into the pockets of the poor.
Clearly, this is very demeaning to the average Ghanaian who for almost eight years has been told his or her life has gotten better. I believe that the real people who need this sympathy are orphans, internally displaced persons, old and sick persons disowned by their families. Besides, philanthropy is already taking care of these people.
Read on....
Feature Article of Thursday, 31 January 2008 in Ghana web
Direct Cash for the Poor-Ghana's grand centrally planned waste.
Medieval Kings and Princes were naively convinced by alchemists that they could turn lead into gold. Even though the alchemists repeatedly failed, they received the support of the Kings and Princes and the joke continued until every one became fed up.
If the above was a fairy tale, be prepared for the greatest hoax of all time, being hatched in modern Ghana, allegedly one of the fastest reforming economies according to the World Bank.The decision by the Ghanaian government to make direct cash transfers of between $8- $ 15 every other month to those it solely identifies as poor, marginalized, vulnerable and weak has gotten the ire of many Ghanaians.
Particularly worrying is the state of mind of government advisors on this idea. Their magic wand to ending poverty evokes images of a cabal of hitherto intelligent academics whose leap of faith in deformed poverty reduction papers surpasses the tiny but useful bits of information on individual needs and wants in an economy. Such dispersed infinitesimal information is key to decision making, but not a centrally controlled one as giving direct cash to alleviate one's poverty, created by successive governments in the first place.
Eventually, because many African governments feed on populism rather than what works, our government will deliberately not see the enormity of its attempt to embrace what clearly is a failure.
The government's endorsement of such a plan means that they have little faith in some of the steps they confidently took in 2001 which saved us from a downward spiral. Then, the economy was in one word, stupid. Today, having navigated that tight rope which many African governments will want to catch a shadow of, the limited market-oriented policies that gave it a jolt is painfully being dumped in favour of a Chavez-Castro-Mugabe type economy. An economist has even suggested that the reason for government's about turn is because the market economy had brought in its wake untold hardships to the poor. So, collectivist countries like Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba have been cited as leaders in making direct cash to the poor. Even the US and the UK were cited as well.
But we all know the festering laziness and impoverishment such packages have caused among minority communities wherever they have been introduced. Supporters of this perverted economic theory are pointing to the near recession of the U.S economy and the government's response by infusing over US$140 billion into the economy. Yes, that's salvation, but then the cash will come in the form of tax cuts for some 100 million people who have been hit by the mortgage crisis. That's a far cry from making direct cash transfers.
Yes, the market is a process and likely to make mistakes which are self-correcting by the way, with occasional sensible regulation. But we must be mindful that a market economy supervised by crony capitalists has the same effect like that organized under a mafia.Besides if you pursue any economic system half-heartedly, you wouldn't reap its full results.
So, even though the current administration ostensibly supports a private sector-led economy, its taxation policies have simply been a cut and paste one. Apart from the myriad of double taxation we are burdened with on virtually everything edible, the very poor Ghanaians have been asked to pay air time tax on mobile phones. The talk time tax itself does not worry me, but what the proceeds are intended for--government supervised employment schemes, which obviously is another flamboyant voter gimmick. Government thwarts the efforts of public utility regulators when they set realistic tariffs with voter-induced subsidies and then fails to ensure that adequate transparent investments is made in the delivery of good sanitation, water and electricity. The inability of even urban residents to access these services adds to their poverty.
Granted the 'kindness' of government sees the light, how can we ensure that the money actually gets into the pockets of the identified people especially because of our not too transparent agencies? The government and its poor friends would be up against officials of Ministries, Departments and Agencies that have been alleged to misappropriate 443 billion cedis (over $46 million) last year alone aside the inability, in one instance, to provide documents to cover the purchase of 113 officials cars.
Discerning Ghanaians are asking other questions- so what happened to the millions saved in debt repayment after 80% of our debts were forgiven during the G8 Gleneagles summit in 2005? What happened to the handsome windfalls from world cocoa and gold prices? What happens to the myriad of taxes we pay? And what will happen to the Millennium Challenge Account money?
How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production?, train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?.
Opposition to the above suggestion will come from praise-singing propagandists who will attempt to say real decentralization of power and resources to every district in Ghana will not solve our problems as local knowledge is not sufficient to determine what is good for the locals.
If every district was allowed to determine its own economic agenda, there will indeed be no need for government parastatals to convince the President for instance, to assemble all his hard working ministers to organize a people's assembly in a region once a year to listen to personal problems of poor people that could have been solved by an empowered village town crier who the villagers themselves elect.To those propagandists who think this cannot work, I will recommend Thomas Sowell's book "Knowledge and Decisions".
Franklin Cudjoe is Executive Director of IMANI Center for Policy & Education and editor of www.AfricanLiberty.org
Monday, January 21, 2008
The Ironey of a Jacob Zuma Presidency
Rejoice Ngwenya takes on another controversial African leader in the making.....
Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s new questionable African National Congress (ANC) president has a political destiny already sealed with fate. Those who believe that his electoral victory will emit ‘shock waves’ in and beyond South Africa simply do not understand the political game plan in the ANC.
A Zuma victory, however thin or wide portend bad omen for 21st century politics even in Africa. Not least because 21st century politics is immune to socialist rhetoric, but that South Africans are wise enough to know that sacrificing hard-won regional and continental dominance on the altar of simplistic populism come 2009 will be suicidal.
Zuma’s ascendancy to the ANC throne leaves us with a relative historical reflection about his roots. Jacob Zuma belongs to the Zulu tribal lineage, known for its authoritarian military antics under Tshaka Zulu and by extension, though less dramatic under Chief Gahsha Buthelezi.
We are aware that Buthelezi tried to impose the political influence of the Zulu on contemporary South Africa through his Inkatha Movement, his effort met with dismal failure. Moreover, his flirtation with the Apartheid regime left a permanent scar that sent repulsive signals to a nation wanting nothing short of absolute victory over the oppressors. Zulus therefore remained completely overshadowed in the ANC hierarchy, and ironically, many skeptics believed the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) was a better forum for Zulus to express their nationalist sentiments than the Xhosa dominated ANC. And yet the mere fact that ANC liberation fighters used the Umkhonto weSizwe brand, a Zulu term that means ‘spear of the nation’, the significance of the Zulu content in the ANC – which is what Zuma symbolises – now cannot be ignored. But I have strong doubts whether this suffices as a signal tune to Zuma’s ascendancy to the throne.
For South Africa, the phenomenon of a new national president emerging out of an ANC political process is nothing strange. After all it is the party that produced great characters like Albert Sisulu, Oliver Thambo and of course, global icon Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela. But to say Jacob Zuma will substitute a ‘great name’ in the person of Thabo Mbeki would be an illusion. Most South Africans believe Mbeki’s soft-touch approach to the national crises of HIV/Aids, unemployment and crime are blight to the ANC. A Polokwane based weekly, The Speaker, adds: "His [Mbeki] uneven handed way he dealt with the Health Minister Manto Chabalala Msimang vs her deputy Nosisive Routledge; and the NPA boss Vusi Pikoli vs Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi's criminal allegations all contributed to his downfall." This means the average black South African, Abensundu or Uluntu, come 2009 will be elated to see Mbeki’s political future bleak. But there is a catch to this irony. If, according to the ANC constitution, Polokwane 2008 has ‘produced a future president’ in Zuma, South Africans, technically, must ready themselves for a populist Zulu cadre as national leader. This predictive model may sound totally inconsistent with a constitutional democracy that hosts ‘big’ political contestants like the PAC, Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Movement, but the politics of South Africa is mutually exclusive - black or white. How inconceivable it is that a nation that suffered four centuries of white-on-black oppression can vote for a white president, even if it is a contest between Helen Zille’s superior liberal DA ideology and Zuma’s socialist rhetoric!
Thabo Mbeki, despite his political transgressions and acclaimed 'aloofness', casts a humble impression of an intellectual ideologue who understands the importance of business and property rights. This explains why ANC’s potpourri of socialist, communist and labour membership co-exists with Black Economic Empowerment of the Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa’s. But if black South Africans vote for Zuma in 2009, they will be doing it in the full knowledge that he is a man who pays no homage to issues of HIV/Aids, women’s rights and business integrity, although they would rather live with this, than either with another Thabo Mbeki term or Helen Zille. If this sounds confusing, the National Prosecuting Authority, South Africa’s version of FBI has the answer.
According to current court records, Jacob Zuma has 'a criminal history' that can wreck anybody’s political career. But perhaps like an American Whitehouse soapie, sex scandals and money games play a minor role in political credibility in South Africa. Yet as you read this article, the NPA has concluded that Jacob Zuma, who survived a rape conviction by a hair’s breadth, definitely has many cases to answer on his relationship with the jailed fraudster Shabir Schaik. Political analysts agree that this is neither a case of circumstantial evidence nor political harassment. Therefore if Zuma is convicted, that will signal the end of his flirtation with national presidency, in which case his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe may run Pretoria after 2009. If Zuma survives, South Africans will find themselves head on with fate – a president with a ‘criminal’ history, but then, will all the members of the African Unity that are ‘clean’ please raise your right hands!
For us poor Zimbabweans, we would be caught between a rock and a hard place. Mark Gevisser’s biography: Thabo Mbeki, The Dream Deferred reveals that Mbeki has a favour to return to habitual autocrat Robert Mugabe. The ruling party ZANUpf had ‘bad’ relations with ANC during both countries’ liberation struggles, not least because of ideological differences, but that Oliver Thambo simply preferred the friendship of the more aristocratic Joshua Nkomo, Mugabe’s fierce and credible political rival. After Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, ANC’s Umkhonto weSizwe, whose fighters had been on duty with Nkomo ‘s ZIPRA cadres in Rhodesia, needed a military rearguard in Zimbabwe, so Mbeki was assigned the delicate task of negotiating for this critical passage with a hostile Mugabe.
Thus for Zimbabweans who have been clamouring for South Africa to take ‘drastic’ action as a catalyst for rapid political change, Mbeki’s inevitable departure is a blessing in disguise, because Zuma not only has strong Umkhonto weSizwe tendencies, but his Zulu ancestry tallies with the late Joshua Nkomo ‘s Matebele lineage. Mind you, Zimbabweans have all the reasons to be more optimistic about Zuma’s ‘hard-line approach’ on Mugabe because the latter is not only accused of having massacred twenty thousand Zuma’s ‘Zulu descendants’ in Matebeleland, but also that ZANUpf resents strategic alliances between COSATU - Zuma's key ally - and MDC, Mugabe's arch enemy. However, were Zuma’s brand of populist politics to destroy the South African economy, three million Zimbabwean economic exiles, who to date sustain Harare’s fragile economy, would be ‘dead and buried’. But for Africa, it is another feather in the cap of leaders who have blood, semen and funny money on their hands. Do the SADC and AU really care?
This syndicated article by AfricanLiberty.org was written by Rejoice Ngwenya, Zimbabwean Freemarket Activist and Political Analyst based in Harare. Send him an email at rejoice@earth.co.zw
Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s new questionable African National Congress (ANC) president has a political destiny already sealed with fate. Those who believe that his electoral victory will emit ‘shock waves’ in and beyond South Africa simply do not understand the political game plan in the ANC.
A Zuma victory, however thin or wide portend bad omen for 21st century politics even in Africa. Not least because 21st century politics is immune to socialist rhetoric, but that South Africans are wise enough to know that sacrificing hard-won regional and continental dominance on the altar of simplistic populism come 2009 will be suicidal.
Zuma’s ascendancy to the ANC throne leaves us with a relative historical reflection about his roots. Jacob Zuma belongs to the Zulu tribal lineage, known for its authoritarian military antics under Tshaka Zulu and by extension, though less dramatic under Chief Gahsha Buthelezi.
We are aware that Buthelezi tried to impose the political influence of the Zulu on contemporary South Africa through his Inkatha Movement, his effort met with dismal failure. Moreover, his flirtation with the Apartheid regime left a permanent scar that sent repulsive signals to a nation wanting nothing short of absolute victory over the oppressors. Zulus therefore remained completely overshadowed in the ANC hierarchy, and ironically, many skeptics believed the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) was a better forum for Zulus to express their nationalist sentiments than the Xhosa dominated ANC. And yet the mere fact that ANC liberation fighters used the Umkhonto weSizwe brand, a Zulu term that means ‘spear of the nation’, the significance of the Zulu content in the ANC – which is what Zuma symbolises – now cannot be ignored. But I have strong doubts whether this suffices as a signal tune to Zuma’s ascendancy to the throne.
For South Africa, the phenomenon of a new national president emerging out of an ANC political process is nothing strange. After all it is the party that produced great characters like Albert Sisulu, Oliver Thambo and of course, global icon Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela. But to say Jacob Zuma will substitute a ‘great name’ in the person of Thabo Mbeki would be an illusion. Most South Africans believe Mbeki’s soft-touch approach to the national crises of HIV/Aids, unemployment and crime are blight to the ANC. A Polokwane based weekly, The Speaker, adds: "His [Mbeki] uneven handed way he dealt with the Health Minister Manto Chabalala Msimang vs her deputy Nosisive Routledge; and the NPA boss Vusi Pikoli vs Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi's criminal allegations all contributed to his downfall." This means the average black South African, Abensundu or Uluntu, come 2009 will be elated to see Mbeki’s political future bleak. But there is a catch to this irony. If, according to the ANC constitution, Polokwane 2008 has ‘produced a future president’ in Zuma, South Africans, technically, must ready themselves for a populist Zulu cadre as national leader. This predictive model may sound totally inconsistent with a constitutional democracy that hosts ‘big’ political contestants like the PAC, Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Movement, but the politics of South Africa is mutually exclusive - black or white. How inconceivable it is that a nation that suffered four centuries of white-on-black oppression can vote for a white president, even if it is a contest between Helen Zille’s superior liberal DA ideology and Zuma’s socialist rhetoric!
Thabo Mbeki, despite his political transgressions and acclaimed 'aloofness', casts a humble impression of an intellectual ideologue who understands the importance of business and property rights. This explains why ANC’s potpourri of socialist, communist and labour membership co-exists with Black Economic Empowerment of the Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa’s. But if black South Africans vote for Zuma in 2009, they will be doing it in the full knowledge that he is a man who pays no homage to issues of HIV/Aids, women’s rights and business integrity, although they would rather live with this, than either with another Thabo Mbeki term or Helen Zille. If this sounds confusing, the National Prosecuting Authority, South Africa’s version of FBI has the answer.
According to current court records, Jacob Zuma has 'a criminal history' that can wreck anybody’s political career. But perhaps like an American Whitehouse soapie, sex scandals and money games play a minor role in political credibility in South Africa. Yet as you read this article, the NPA has concluded that Jacob Zuma, who survived a rape conviction by a hair’s breadth, definitely has many cases to answer on his relationship with the jailed fraudster Shabir Schaik. Political analysts agree that this is neither a case of circumstantial evidence nor political harassment. Therefore if Zuma is convicted, that will signal the end of his flirtation with national presidency, in which case his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe may run Pretoria after 2009. If Zuma survives, South Africans will find themselves head on with fate – a president with a ‘criminal’ history, but then, will all the members of the African Unity that are ‘clean’ please raise your right hands!
For us poor Zimbabweans, we would be caught between a rock and a hard place. Mark Gevisser’s biography: Thabo Mbeki, The Dream Deferred reveals that Mbeki has a favour to return to habitual autocrat Robert Mugabe. The ruling party ZANUpf had ‘bad’ relations with ANC during both countries’ liberation struggles, not least because of ideological differences, but that Oliver Thambo simply preferred the friendship of the more aristocratic Joshua Nkomo, Mugabe’s fierce and credible political rival. After Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, ANC’s Umkhonto weSizwe, whose fighters had been on duty with Nkomo ‘s ZIPRA cadres in Rhodesia, needed a military rearguard in Zimbabwe, so Mbeki was assigned the delicate task of negotiating for this critical passage with a hostile Mugabe.
Thus for Zimbabweans who have been clamouring for South Africa to take ‘drastic’ action as a catalyst for rapid political change, Mbeki’s inevitable departure is a blessing in disguise, because Zuma not only has strong Umkhonto weSizwe tendencies, but his Zulu ancestry tallies with the late Joshua Nkomo ‘s Matebele lineage. Mind you, Zimbabweans have all the reasons to be more optimistic about Zuma’s ‘hard-line approach’ on Mugabe because the latter is not only accused of having massacred twenty thousand Zuma’s ‘Zulu descendants’ in Matebeleland, but also that ZANUpf resents strategic alliances between COSATU - Zuma's key ally - and MDC, Mugabe's arch enemy. However, were Zuma’s brand of populist politics to destroy the South African economy, three million Zimbabwean economic exiles, who to date sustain Harare’s fragile economy, would be ‘dead and buried’. But for Africa, it is another feather in the cap of leaders who have blood, semen and funny money on their hands. Do the SADC and AU really care?
This syndicated article by AfricanLiberty.org was written by Rejoice Ngwenya, Zimbabwean Freemarket Activist and Political Analyst based in Harare. Send him an email at rejoice@earth.co.zw
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Kenya Elections 2007 Continued:-comments
Good morning Mr Cudjoe,
Thank you for taking the time to write to me. It is a pleasure to read from you.
First of all congratulations on the excellent work you are doing with www.imanighana.com and www.africanliberty.org. I have taken a quicklook and will be back to have a deeper look. It is interesting to read such thought provoking commentary from across our continent.Congratulation also on starting a blog. I am a firm believer in blogs and I am alwayshappy to come across another African one.
Thank you for forwarding Edwin’s essay. I had come across it on one of the forums in which I participate. No doubt you have been followingthe debate his piece generated.
My thoughts on Edwin’s piece are mixed. His collection of the facts is useful. The analysis is not that useful. There is what I feel is a underlying bias against Odinga and Pro-Kibaki which would be fine if he were not trying to present this as a neutral piece.
For example, he skims over the fact that Kibaki has been in the executive since independence. He is entrenched in a system that grew increasingly corrupt. Secondly, he fondly claims brotherhood with Kibakias fellow economists yet fails to point out that Kibaki was Minister of Finance in the 1980’s under Moi when the country was bleed dry.
Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings the Luo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the all the serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one who represents a Nairobi seat in parliament. Each and every other presidential candidate represents a seat in their tribal area. Odinga’s seat, Langata, is the most diverse in the country, ethically it containsall the tribes, and economically it contains huge slums such as Kibera and large country estates such as Karen.
This election was an economic choice in some respects yes, however it was an election really between continuity and change. If you want an image to carry with you about the pre election period then take this one; 5 years after Kenyans finally managed to get rid of the Moi dictatorship and entrusted Kibaki with the responsibility to lead the revival of the country from the top, Kibaki and Moi joined forces praising one another and attacking Odinga. They say you should judgea man by his friends.
I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour ofKibaki and against Odinga. The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and
installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? Thatwe are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki’s inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who wonthe election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.
What commentators like me are saying is not that Kibaki lost and Odinga won. What we are saying is that WE DON’T KNOW. No one knows who won this election such was the incompetence of the Electoral Commission of Kenya. Until that is resolved Kenya will remain unbalanced.
It is good to see you have James Shikwati on your team of writers. His take on this will be interesting and will offer insight.
Thank you for getting in touch and many blessings in all yourventures.
Daudi@mentalacrobactics.com
reply
Edwin responds to Daudi's
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 11:50.
Daudi. I respond to some of your comments below.
Daudi: Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings theLuo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the allthe serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one whorepresents a Nairobi seat in parliament.
Edwin:Many of my Luo colleagues all go to register to vote in Kibera where Mr. Odinga gets his support from. Plus the slums still display the ethnic segregation that the colonists started whereby the Luo's were placed in Kibera, the Luhya's in Kangemi, the Kikuyu in Dagoreti. Other slums like Huruma and Mathare are a bit mixed thus explaining the violence in those slums as contrasted to the relative peace in Dagoreti and Kangemi.
Daudi: I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour of Kibaki and against Odinga.
Edwin:I don't think that I downplayed serious issues but this is testament to the complexity of the situation on the ground such as no hope in sight for the many young people without jobs and politics based on ethnic polarization. Not mentioning them is not the same as downplaying them.
Daudi: The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? That we are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki's inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who won the election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.
Edwin: It is not known if Kibaki won or stole the election. Information I have indicates that PNU did rig but whether ODM won the elections is another matter. For example, it is claimed that the overnight tallying process before the announcement of results was signed and agreed to by ODM agents. When they realized they were loosing, they then went on a strategy of frustrating the announcement of results. I must add that I cannot vouch for the veracity of this assertion but there are people saying this. On the other hand, Kibaki had Kivuitu read the results and was sworn in as president literally 5 minutes later in a closed ceremony at the state house gives the impression of someone who was hell bent on stealing the election. Interestingly, EU observers and the local team have only given two constituencies where rigging by tampering with the tallying process have been proven i.e. Molo and Juja. Could it be that Kibaki actually won the election? But due to the lack of credibility in the whole exercise, the only way confidence can be restored in the presidential elections is by conducting a rerun.
Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:32.
Regarding the subject article by Edwin Nyanducha, I'd like to congratulate your professional journalism since this is the first article I've seen which makes any sense of the violence in Kenya.
The only question I had remaining was whether the ethnic groups and violence were divided among religious lines. I noticed that that one of the groups attacked was in an Assembly of God church. I know also that the main divisions are between Orthodox Christians, Protestants, Muslim and other original religions to Kenya.
Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com
Edwin Nyanducha, edwin.nyanducha@gmail.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:34.
Thanks a lot for the warm compliments. Such feedback always gives one inspiration to keep writing. I note that you have congratulated me for professional journalism. Actually, I am not a journalist but a consultant concentrating on financial and economic matters though I have an avid interest and appreciation of history which aids in making sense of political issues.
You have asked whether there are divisions along ethnic lines in the country. Generally no. However, the Muslims are a sort of vocal minority (ranging anywhere between 8% to 15%) as there are no accurate statistics who are viewed in a very suspicious light by the Christians who are the majority. But amongst the Christians, the key divisions are along tribal lines due to economic and cultural differentiations amongst the various groupings.
Edwin Nyanducha
Thank you for taking the time to write to me. It is a pleasure to read from you.
First of all congratulations on the excellent work you are doing with www.imanighana.com and www.africanliberty.org. I have taken a quicklook and will be back to have a deeper look. It is interesting to read such thought provoking commentary from across our continent.Congratulation also on starting a blog. I am a firm believer in blogs and I am alwayshappy to come across another African one.
Thank you for forwarding Edwin’s essay. I had come across it on one of the forums in which I participate. No doubt you have been followingthe debate his piece generated.
My thoughts on Edwin’s piece are mixed. His collection of the facts is useful. The analysis is not that useful. There is what I feel is a underlying bias against Odinga and Pro-Kibaki which would be fine if he were not trying to present this as a neutral piece.
For example, he skims over the fact that Kibaki has been in the executive since independence. He is entrenched in a system that grew increasingly corrupt. Secondly, he fondly claims brotherhood with Kibakias fellow economists yet fails to point out that Kibaki was Minister of Finance in the 1980’s under Moi when the country was bleed dry.
Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings the Luo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the all the serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one who represents a Nairobi seat in parliament. Each and every other presidential candidate represents a seat in their tribal area. Odinga’s seat, Langata, is the most diverse in the country, ethically it containsall the tribes, and economically it contains huge slums such as Kibera and large country estates such as Karen.
This election was an economic choice in some respects yes, however it was an election really between continuity and change. If you want an image to carry with you about the pre election period then take this one; 5 years after Kenyans finally managed to get rid of the Moi dictatorship and entrusted Kibaki with the responsibility to lead the revival of the country from the top, Kibaki and Moi joined forces praising one another and attacking Odinga. They say you should judgea man by his friends.
I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour ofKibaki and against Odinga. The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and
installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? Thatwe are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki’s inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who wonthe election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.
What commentators like me are saying is not that Kibaki lost and Odinga won. What we are saying is that WE DON’T KNOW. No one knows who won this election such was the incompetence of the Electoral Commission of Kenya. Until that is resolved Kenya will remain unbalanced.
It is good to see you have James Shikwati on your team of writers. His take on this will be interesting and will offer insight.
Thank you for getting in touch and many blessings in all yourventures.
Daudi@mentalacrobactics.com
reply
Edwin responds to Daudi's
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 11:50.
Daudi. I respond to some of your comments below.
Daudi: Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings theLuo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the allthe serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one whorepresents a Nairobi seat in parliament.
Edwin:Many of my Luo colleagues all go to register to vote in Kibera where Mr. Odinga gets his support from. Plus the slums still display the ethnic segregation that the colonists started whereby the Luo's were placed in Kibera, the Luhya's in Kangemi, the Kikuyu in Dagoreti. Other slums like Huruma and Mathare are a bit mixed thus explaining the violence in those slums as contrasted to the relative peace in Dagoreti and Kangemi.
Daudi: I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour of Kibaki and against Odinga.
Edwin:I don't think that I downplayed serious issues but this is testament to the complexity of the situation on the ground such as no hope in sight for the many young people without jobs and politics based on ethnic polarization. Not mentioning them is not the same as downplaying them.
Daudi: The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? That we are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki's inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who won the election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.
Edwin: It is not known if Kibaki won or stole the election. Information I have indicates that PNU did rig but whether ODM won the elections is another matter. For example, it is claimed that the overnight tallying process before the announcement of results was signed and agreed to by ODM agents. When they realized they were loosing, they then went on a strategy of frustrating the announcement of results. I must add that I cannot vouch for the veracity of this assertion but there are people saying this. On the other hand, Kibaki had Kivuitu read the results and was sworn in as president literally 5 minutes later in a closed ceremony at the state house gives the impression of someone who was hell bent on stealing the election. Interestingly, EU observers and the local team have only given two constituencies where rigging by tampering with the tallying process have been proven i.e. Molo and Juja. Could it be that Kibaki actually won the election? But due to the lack of credibility in the whole exercise, the only way confidence can be restored in the presidential elections is by conducting a rerun.
Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:32.
Regarding the subject article by Edwin Nyanducha, I'd like to congratulate your professional journalism since this is the first article I've seen which makes any sense of the violence in Kenya.
The only question I had remaining was whether the ethnic groups and violence were divided among religious lines. I noticed that that one of the groups attacked was in an Assembly of God church. I know also that the main divisions are between Orthodox Christians, Protestants, Muslim and other original religions to Kenya.
Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com
Edwin Nyanducha, edwin.nyanducha@gmail.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:34.
Thanks a lot for the warm compliments. Such feedback always gives one inspiration to keep writing. I note that you have congratulated me for professional journalism. Actually, I am not a journalist but a consultant concentrating on financial and economic matters though I have an avid interest and appreciation of history which aids in making sense of political issues.
You have asked whether there are divisions along ethnic lines in the country. Generally no. However, the Muslims are a sort of vocal minority (ranging anywhere between 8% to 15%) as there are no accurate statistics who are viewed in a very suspicious light by the Christians who are the majority. But amongst the Christians, the key divisions are along tribal lines due to economic and cultural differentiations amongst the various groupings.
Edwin Nyanducha
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Elections Kenya 2007-A Deeper Reflection
Folks,
Edwin Nyanducha, a very good friend of mine, is Kenyan. He is thePrincipal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and ConsultancyCentre. He shared his thoughts on KENYA on his educative discussion lists(Around Africa). He provides a succinct analysis of the undercurrentsleading to KENYA today. I find it quite refreshing, and hope you do too.
Elections Kenya 2007- A Deeper Reflection.
By Edwin Nyanducha
Introduction
Almost all emails I have been receiving from all over the world are asking the one simple question: what is going on in Kenya? From the disappointment of those who have always viewed Kenya as a model democracy to predictions by many prestigious circles who had indicated that the elections were not going to have any impact on business and society in our country, the naysayers seem to be having a field day. I will attempt to give what I consider a meaningful picture of the issues and the likely turn that things are going to take.
First Things First
There is a saying that all politics are local. In places like the US, the things that affect the Iowans are not the same ones that afflict the Texans. Likewise, in Kenya, all politics are local and the things the people in the coastal habour care about are not the same things people at the farmlands of Rift Valley value the most. Further complicating the issue is that region and tribe are synonymous, giving an impression that Kenyan politics is only driven by tribalism. The truth is more complicated than that.
The CIA Factbox below divides Kenya into 6 main ethnic groups accounting for 84% of the country's population with none having a clear majority:
Kikuyu 22%,Luhya 14%,Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11% ,Kisii 6% ,Meru 6% ,Other African 15%, Non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1%. This means that Kenya was, is and will always be a land designed for coalition politics.
Complicating the fact further is the long overdue generational change in the politicians holding office. Mwai Kibaki is past 70 years of age. Even Raila Odinga who carries himself as a youthful politician is 62 years of age. The CIA factbox again explains Kenya's age pyramid which reads below:
0-14 years: 42.1%
15-64 years: 55.2%
65 years and over: 2.6%
The median age is 18.6 years.
Setting the Stage
Official statistics indicate that 52% of Kenya's population currently lives below the poverty line. Agriculture accounts for 70% of the country's labour force on a pitiful 14% total arable land. Rigid land acquisition processes notwithstanding, a rapidly growing youth base in rural areas with biting poverty pushing many into urban areas, presents a clear and present danger as pressure on inadequate social services alone could trigger discontent. After years of negative growth in real GDP, the economy has finally started improving amidst cautious optimism being urged by critics who argue that the economy was simply experiencing recovery, not growth. In a sense, it can be said that the ill-fated election was about maintaining the status quo versus ushering in change. A far respite though is that after almost four decades of brutal politics under Jomo Kenyatta and Arap Moi, the quest for humane politics is becoming evident.
The Key Players
Mwai Kibaki is in a sense the quintessential English gentleman. Schooling in Makerere, East Africa's finest university after independence, Kibaki obtained a First Class Honours in Economics and then proceeded to London School of Economics for a masters in Economics. By the early 60's, Kibaki immersed himself in Kenyan politics starting out as Minister for Trade and Industry and moving on to be the Minister for Finance for very many years. Being a sort of economist myself, I must say that Kibaki has put in place quite a number of overdue building blocks in the country's economy that will keep serving the country well. For many years, Kibaki was ever present at the Muthaiga Country Club, which from the days of independence has housed the who is who in Kenya's establishment and has continued to be frequented by the diplomatic corps and the vestiges of Kenya's colonists, fondly known as Kenyan cowboys who arguably still control a very big chunk of economic activity in the country. Most people remark that Kibaki is such a gentleman that even in politics, he is often not willing to dirty his hands with a crude brand of politics.
In a sense, Raila Odinga can be defined as 'The Renegade'. Obtaining his education in engineering and political revolutions from Russia at the height of the cold war, Raila has always been an agitator for change which has landed him long stints in jail. A charmer of the masses and one who knows how to identify with the common mans plight, he is a force to reckon with on Kenya's political scene. From the onset of multi party democracy, Raila has in a sense been a political entrepreneur who would register a party, get on board the bulk of the Luo vote but not manage any significant impact in the rest of the country. He seems to have learnt from his mistakes and in 2007 he managed to have convinced over a good portion of voters from other parts of the country, including the Muslim vote.
Though many do not see it that way, William Ruto is another tour de force on the political scene. Rising to prominence in 1992, Ruto assisted former president Moi to put in place a powerful electioneering machine that saw Moi reelected despite every one assuming that he was going to be automatically deposed. In actual effect, Ruto is a true king maker. From having cobbled together ODM into a country wide party, aligning members of parliament's ambitions with those of ODM and then containing the fissures and cracks within the vessel, Ruto was able to assemble a formidable machine whose ripples were felt across the country in the just concluded elections.
Election 2007 Key Issues
In its own imperfect way, the current elections were the first time when some sort of principles based politics appeared: the Party of National Unity, PNU, was promising continuity and economic development while the Orange Democratic Movement, ODM, was promising change to the masses. On the surface of it, these seemed to be the issues. However, a closer inspection of the issues reveals more. At independence time, the Kikuyu were the most populous tribe and land availability had become an issue at their home towns. Rift Valley province, which houses clash torn Eldoret and Burnt Forest, was the former white highlands that had been segregated specifically for large scale settlement by the colonists. Suddenly the colonists’ farmlands were a free for all at independence time. Some version of what transpired thereafter holds that with the Kikuyu's being in power, they rushed to grab the lands and to settle some of their kin who were formerly huddled in reserves. Other people hold that the colonists’ farms were in effect government property.
The government of the day went on to subdivide the farms and invited land buying companies to purchase them off the government. It is argued that many Kikuyu's took advantage to purchase lands then. There are other versions of what happened but the foregoing two are the story lines that are most heard. I must confess I am not in a position to vouch for the accuracy or otherwise of the assertions but I recite them here to help explain the last few days events.
The Rift Valley is predominantly inhabited by Kalenjins who have been rapidly multiplying and now the supply of land to take advantage of the lucrative agricultural opportunities is beginning to become a bigger issue by the day. They view the presence of many Kikuyu's in the province as letting outsiders live in their midst and there have been repeated attempts to expel Kikuyu's from the province. The tactics employed are mostly terrorism in the nature of killing, burning property, attacking far to reach settlements, maiming with crude weapons, issuing of threats and inflammatory leaflets amongst others. Despite repeated clashes, the Kikuyu's have not demonstrated the will to abandon a place they now call home. Add on to this the notion that Kikuyu's did not vote for the Kalenjin's preferred presidential candidate, Eldoret's clashes must thus be viewed in this light. Kenya's coast has always been an area of immense economic activity with the port being the gateway to East and Central Africa. From the earliest days of independence, quite a number of industrious Kikuyu's started settling in Mombasa. With time, a sizeable number of small scale traders who controlled much of the coastal merchandise were Kikuyu’s. Then there is a fraction of people who argue that the sizeable revenue generated by the port in Mombasa is being sent off to the central government and the money is not helping the coastal residents much. This has led to calls for some form of federalism. Also, the laid back culture of the coastal residents when pitted against the industrious, aggressive and rough culture of the Kikuyu has led to the perception that they are an arrogant community who need to go back to where they came from. Jews in many parts of the world, including Europe and the USA, still receive this sort of reception. Clearly Kenya is not alone in this.
Due to failed agricultural policies and lack of development of the economy beyond its colonial base, rural urban migration is now the norm and the slums in the cities are growing at a very rapid rate. Kibera, Kenya's biggest slum and which is Mr. Odinga's constituency, is estimated to house a population of at least 1 million. The slums are now housing a growing population of young, poor youth's who are impatient for change and who will vote in whoever seems to promise them a better living. Fueling the issue further are politicians promises of reducing the cost of living which in all fairness has been largely brought about by an increase in the price of crude and not entirely due to policies of Kibaki's government.
Elections Play Out
Going into the elections, Kibaki felt confident that his returning Kenya's economy onto a positive growth path would automatically lead to his reelection. This made him be holed in the seat of government and surrounded himself with technocrats as they strategized on growth et al. During that time period, Raila and Ruto were busy criss crossing the country speaking to women at functions, consoling youths at football matches, loudly pointing the government's short comings amongst others. Kibaki seems to have forgotten that politics is by large measure a popularity contest in which the number of votes is a function of the number of hands you shake and the number of places you visit. Kibaki's punishing travel schedule in the run up to the election is thus explained by this. But a key failing of the Kibaki administration was not reading the signs of the times. Whereas they were helped to get into power by Raila and other people, no sooner were they in state house than they dishonoured the Memorandum of Understanding they had struck. The Mt. Kenya mafia started behaving with arrogance uber ales as if the other voting blocks did not matter and the Kikuyu's 22% was enough to return Kibaki to power. Insensitivity in appointing people to high offices such as the Central Bank Governor did not help either. Raila and Ruto read the mood of the time and assembled all those discontented voices under a single roof named ODM. Four month's to elections, Kibaki saw the opinion polls and for the first time, the possibility of losing the reelection started registering. Quickly cobbling together PNU which comprised of disparate parties that had not agreed on many critical issues, Kibaki packaged himself (and himself only) as the continuity that the country needs and a moderate in the face of the radicals calling for change. As the days soldiered on, he started fairing better in the opinion polls and by the time the Steadman Group conducted its second last opinion poll, the race was actually tied. The very last opinion poll conducted indicated that Raila had a very slim lead that would be significantly affected by the voter turnout.
Election Results Delays & Election Rigging
The elections were conducted via combining presidential, parliamentary and civic elections. Kenya's MP's make about 12,000 USD per month in tax free pay that is exclusive of very many other allowances they make. It is estimated that many people who were running for parliament were spending between USD 120,000 to USD 300,000 to clinch a seat. This led to very hotly contested parliamentary elections where losers kept insisting that the election results not be announced until their disputes were heard and determined. As the days dragged on, the increasing delays started creating an impression of a plot to rig the elections. Even constituencies a few kilometers away from the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) headquarters took up to 3 days to announce their results.
There have been allegations of vote rigging conducted via tampering with the vote tallying process some of which has been verified such as Molo constituency where Kibaki's votes at the counting center read 50,000 votes while results at announced at ECK headquarters were 75,000. Juja constituency has also been singled out where Kibaki's votes counted at the constituency level were 48,000 while those announced by the ECK were 113,000 votes. So far, those are the two proven cases I am aware of but I would be happy to receive verifiable cases of vote tallying tampering. The in explainable delays did a lot to increase tension across the country and created the impression that ECK had been compromised. Added onto this was the amateurish way that ECK kept receiving complaints from the various political parties while declaring results which lead to the commissioners being literally held ransom by the politicians every step of the way and further dented their credibility. It is very basic common sense that when you are referring a hotly contested race, you give your verdict and you do not entertain any feedback. A good way around it would have been to appoint a comments/feedback office and then have a press officer read out results with strict instructions not to entertain feedback or questions. The comments/feedback office should handle that. Another factor to take into account is that this is the first time that the voter turn out has been the largest in the history of the country's elections. In 2002, the total registered voters were 10 million while in 2007, the figure had risen to 14 million coupled with the highest ever recorded voter turnout, the project management challenges this state of affairs created was formidable. Add on to this severely deficient electoral laws that were negotiated in 1997 at the Inter Parliamentary Parties Group meeting at Safari Park which was all about Arap Moi making the minimum necessary concessions, it becomes understandable why the ECK's electioneering laws have so many flaws. Conclusion
As Electoral Commission of Kenya Chairman Mr. Samuel Kivuitu mentioned, his outfit has no capacity to arbitrate election disputes even in the face of overwhelming evidence. That is the work of the law courts or whatever other mechanism may exist. In the final analysis, this was a hotly contested race where both candidates had virtually the same chance of clinching the presidential race. Some ECK officers appear to have been compromised as evidenced by some of the commissioners issuing a statement that results were doctored. This has eroded the credibility of the commission even further. But it would be simplistic to assume that rigging occurred only in PNU strong holds as even ODM is guilty of the same. In this case, it is a question of who managed to steal and not get caught. Raila Odinga and William Ruto are justifiably aggrieved and will most likely do all within their powers to see if they can clinch State House. The violence and chaos in the country are part honest expression by Kenyan's of their disappointment in the electioneering exercise and part instigation by politicians. But what is not excusable is the senseless loss of lives, by and large caused by the ODM side. Burning of women, children and the elderly in a church by ODM affiliated youth in Eldoret is not forgivable. This was followed closely by the burning of another church in Ngong yesterday. No matter what explanation ODM will give, savagery and barbarism of the nature they are displaying gives the impression of a bunch of power hungry hooligans who will stop at nothing to become president. But the blame does not stop there. Kibaki's rigging of votes in certain quarters increasingly paints him as someone desperately clinging onto power by whatever means. The senseless loss of lives due to the actions of Kibaki and Raila are not excusable and a big shame on the both of them for their selfish ways. Kenya's economy is long overdue for a total redesign. What is needed is not a maintenance engineer overseeing an outdated system. We need an architect who can mentally wipe the slate clean and position our country on a whole new level. We have total installed capacity of 1,150 MW of electricity which is what a small town in a place like Philippines consumes. Our road network is sorely inadequate and in dire need of expansion. Our rail system was done by the colonialists in the late 1800's and is still expected to serve the country. The Mombasa port was designed to handle 10 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEU's) whereas it is now handling 14 million and rapidly growing yet I have not seen a new port or berth being constructed. Such bottlenecks to the growth of our economy and with no visionary agenda from the politicians just goes to demonstrate how they are still a part of the problem rather than the solution. Is it any wonder that tribal flare ups due to competition for small unproductive lands are leading to loss of lives? Perhaps the time for principles based politics based on people able to manage an internet economy in Kenya and not political entrepreneurship is surely long overdue and I have faith that 2012 will be the year when the democratic space will be clearly defined and be upheld thereafter.
This syndicated essay by AfricanLiberty.org is written by Mr Edwin Nyanducha, Principal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and Consultancy Centre. His email is edwin.nyanducha(-at-gmail.com)
Edwin Nyanducha, a very good friend of mine, is Kenyan. He is thePrincipal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and ConsultancyCentre. He shared his thoughts on KENYA on his educative discussion lists(Around Africa). He provides a succinct analysis of the undercurrentsleading to KENYA today. I find it quite refreshing, and hope you do too.
Elections Kenya 2007- A Deeper Reflection.
By Edwin Nyanducha
Introduction
Almost all emails I have been receiving from all over the world are asking the one simple question: what is going on in Kenya? From the disappointment of those who have always viewed Kenya as a model democracy to predictions by many prestigious circles who had indicated that the elections were not going to have any impact on business and society in our country, the naysayers seem to be having a field day. I will attempt to give what I consider a meaningful picture of the issues and the likely turn that things are going to take.
First Things First
There is a saying that all politics are local. In places like the US, the things that affect the Iowans are not the same ones that afflict the Texans. Likewise, in Kenya, all politics are local and the things the people in the coastal habour care about are not the same things people at the farmlands of Rift Valley value the most. Further complicating the issue is that region and tribe are synonymous, giving an impression that Kenyan politics is only driven by tribalism. The truth is more complicated than that.
The CIA Factbox below divides Kenya into 6 main ethnic groups accounting for 84% of the country's population with none having a clear majority:
Kikuyu 22%,Luhya 14%,Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11% ,Kisii 6% ,Meru 6% ,Other African 15%, Non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1%. This means that Kenya was, is and will always be a land designed for coalition politics.
Complicating the fact further is the long overdue generational change in the politicians holding office. Mwai Kibaki is past 70 years of age. Even Raila Odinga who carries himself as a youthful politician is 62 years of age. The CIA factbox again explains Kenya's age pyramid which reads below:
0-14 years: 42.1%
15-64 years: 55.2%
65 years and over: 2.6%
The median age is 18.6 years.
Setting the Stage
Official statistics indicate that 52% of Kenya's population currently lives below the poverty line. Agriculture accounts for 70% of the country's labour force on a pitiful 14% total arable land. Rigid land acquisition processes notwithstanding, a rapidly growing youth base in rural areas with biting poverty pushing many into urban areas, presents a clear and present danger as pressure on inadequate social services alone could trigger discontent. After years of negative growth in real GDP, the economy has finally started improving amidst cautious optimism being urged by critics who argue that the economy was simply experiencing recovery, not growth. In a sense, it can be said that the ill-fated election was about maintaining the status quo versus ushering in change. A far respite though is that after almost four decades of brutal politics under Jomo Kenyatta and Arap Moi, the quest for humane politics is becoming evident.
The Key Players
Mwai Kibaki is in a sense the quintessential English gentleman. Schooling in Makerere, East Africa's finest university after independence, Kibaki obtained a First Class Honours in Economics and then proceeded to London School of Economics for a masters in Economics. By the early 60's, Kibaki immersed himself in Kenyan politics starting out as Minister for Trade and Industry and moving on to be the Minister for Finance for very many years. Being a sort of economist myself, I must say that Kibaki has put in place quite a number of overdue building blocks in the country's economy that will keep serving the country well. For many years, Kibaki was ever present at the Muthaiga Country Club, which from the days of independence has housed the who is who in Kenya's establishment and has continued to be frequented by the diplomatic corps and the vestiges of Kenya's colonists, fondly known as Kenyan cowboys who arguably still control a very big chunk of economic activity in the country. Most people remark that Kibaki is such a gentleman that even in politics, he is often not willing to dirty his hands with a crude brand of politics.
In a sense, Raila Odinga can be defined as 'The Renegade'. Obtaining his education in engineering and political revolutions from Russia at the height of the cold war, Raila has always been an agitator for change which has landed him long stints in jail. A charmer of the masses and one who knows how to identify with the common mans plight, he is a force to reckon with on Kenya's political scene. From the onset of multi party democracy, Raila has in a sense been a political entrepreneur who would register a party, get on board the bulk of the Luo vote but not manage any significant impact in the rest of the country. He seems to have learnt from his mistakes and in 2007 he managed to have convinced over a good portion of voters from other parts of the country, including the Muslim vote.
Though many do not see it that way, William Ruto is another tour de force on the political scene. Rising to prominence in 1992, Ruto assisted former president Moi to put in place a powerful electioneering machine that saw Moi reelected despite every one assuming that he was going to be automatically deposed. In actual effect, Ruto is a true king maker. From having cobbled together ODM into a country wide party, aligning members of parliament's ambitions with those of ODM and then containing the fissures and cracks within the vessel, Ruto was able to assemble a formidable machine whose ripples were felt across the country in the just concluded elections.
Election 2007 Key Issues
In its own imperfect way, the current elections were the first time when some sort of principles based politics appeared: the Party of National Unity, PNU, was promising continuity and economic development while the Orange Democratic Movement, ODM, was promising change to the masses. On the surface of it, these seemed to be the issues. However, a closer inspection of the issues reveals more. At independence time, the Kikuyu were the most populous tribe and land availability had become an issue at their home towns. Rift Valley province, which houses clash torn Eldoret and Burnt Forest, was the former white highlands that had been segregated specifically for large scale settlement by the colonists. Suddenly the colonists’ farmlands were a free for all at independence time. Some version of what transpired thereafter holds that with the Kikuyu's being in power, they rushed to grab the lands and to settle some of their kin who were formerly huddled in reserves. Other people hold that the colonists’ farms were in effect government property.
The government of the day went on to subdivide the farms and invited land buying companies to purchase them off the government. It is argued that many Kikuyu's took advantage to purchase lands then. There are other versions of what happened but the foregoing two are the story lines that are most heard. I must confess I am not in a position to vouch for the accuracy or otherwise of the assertions but I recite them here to help explain the last few days events.
The Rift Valley is predominantly inhabited by Kalenjins who have been rapidly multiplying and now the supply of land to take advantage of the lucrative agricultural opportunities is beginning to become a bigger issue by the day. They view the presence of many Kikuyu's in the province as letting outsiders live in their midst and there have been repeated attempts to expel Kikuyu's from the province. The tactics employed are mostly terrorism in the nature of killing, burning property, attacking far to reach settlements, maiming with crude weapons, issuing of threats and inflammatory leaflets amongst others. Despite repeated clashes, the Kikuyu's have not demonstrated the will to abandon a place they now call home. Add on to this the notion that Kikuyu's did not vote for the Kalenjin's preferred presidential candidate, Eldoret's clashes must thus be viewed in this light. Kenya's coast has always been an area of immense economic activity with the port being the gateway to East and Central Africa. From the earliest days of independence, quite a number of industrious Kikuyu's started settling in Mombasa. With time, a sizeable number of small scale traders who controlled much of the coastal merchandise were Kikuyu’s. Then there is a fraction of people who argue that the sizeable revenue generated by the port in Mombasa is being sent off to the central government and the money is not helping the coastal residents much. This has led to calls for some form of federalism. Also, the laid back culture of the coastal residents when pitted against the industrious, aggressive and rough culture of the Kikuyu has led to the perception that they are an arrogant community who need to go back to where they came from. Jews in many parts of the world, including Europe and the USA, still receive this sort of reception. Clearly Kenya is not alone in this.
Due to failed agricultural policies and lack of development of the economy beyond its colonial base, rural urban migration is now the norm and the slums in the cities are growing at a very rapid rate. Kibera, Kenya's biggest slum and which is Mr. Odinga's constituency, is estimated to house a population of at least 1 million. The slums are now housing a growing population of young, poor youth's who are impatient for change and who will vote in whoever seems to promise them a better living. Fueling the issue further are politicians promises of reducing the cost of living which in all fairness has been largely brought about by an increase in the price of crude and not entirely due to policies of Kibaki's government.
Elections Play Out
Going into the elections, Kibaki felt confident that his returning Kenya's economy onto a positive growth path would automatically lead to his reelection. This made him be holed in the seat of government and surrounded himself with technocrats as they strategized on growth et al. During that time period, Raila and Ruto were busy criss crossing the country speaking to women at functions, consoling youths at football matches, loudly pointing the government's short comings amongst others. Kibaki seems to have forgotten that politics is by large measure a popularity contest in which the number of votes is a function of the number of hands you shake and the number of places you visit. Kibaki's punishing travel schedule in the run up to the election is thus explained by this. But a key failing of the Kibaki administration was not reading the signs of the times. Whereas they were helped to get into power by Raila and other people, no sooner were they in state house than they dishonoured the Memorandum of Understanding they had struck. The Mt. Kenya mafia started behaving with arrogance uber ales as if the other voting blocks did not matter and the Kikuyu's 22% was enough to return Kibaki to power. Insensitivity in appointing people to high offices such as the Central Bank Governor did not help either. Raila and Ruto read the mood of the time and assembled all those discontented voices under a single roof named ODM. Four month's to elections, Kibaki saw the opinion polls and for the first time, the possibility of losing the reelection started registering. Quickly cobbling together PNU which comprised of disparate parties that had not agreed on many critical issues, Kibaki packaged himself (and himself only) as the continuity that the country needs and a moderate in the face of the radicals calling for change. As the days soldiered on, he started fairing better in the opinion polls and by the time the Steadman Group conducted its second last opinion poll, the race was actually tied. The very last opinion poll conducted indicated that Raila had a very slim lead that would be significantly affected by the voter turnout.
Election Results Delays & Election Rigging
The elections were conducted via combining presidential, parliamentary and civic elections. Kenya's MP's make about 12,000 USD per month in tax free pay that is exclusive of very many other allowances they make. It is estimated that many people who were running for parliament were spending between USD 120,000 to USD 300,000 to clinch a seat. This led to very hotly contested parliamentary elections where losers kept insisting that the election results not be announced until their disputes were heard and determined. As the days dragged on, the increasing delays started creating an impression of a plot to rig the elections. Even constituencies a few kilometers away from the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) headquarters took up to 3 days to announce their results.
There have been allegations of vote rigging conducted via tampering with the vote tallying process some of which has been verified such as Molo constituency where Kibaki's votes at the counting center read 50,000 votes while results at announced at ECK headquarters were 75,000. Juja constituency has also been singled out where Kibaki's votes counted at the constituency level were 48,000 while those announced by the ECK were 113,000 votes. So far, those are the two proven cases I am aware of but I would be happy to receive verifiable cases of vote tallying tampering. The in explainable delays did a lot to increase tension across the country and created the impression that ECK had been compromised. Added onto this was the amateurish way that ECK kept receiving complaints from the various political parties while declaring results which lead to the commissioners being literally held ransom by the politicians every step of the way and further dented their credibility. It is very basic common sense that when you are referring a hotly contested race, you give your verdict and you do not entertain any feedback. A good way around it would have been to appoint a comments/feedback office and then have a press officer read out results with strict instructions not to entertain feedback or questions. The comments/feedback office should handle that. Another factor to take into account is that this is the first time that the voter turn out has been the largest in the history of the country's elections. In 2002, the total registered voters were 10 million while in 2007, the figure had risen to 14 million coupled with the highest ever recorded voter turnout, the project management challenges this state of affairs created was formidable. Add on to this severely deficient electoral laws that were negotiated in 1997 at the Inter Parliamentary Parties Group meeting at Safari Park which was all about Arap Moi making the minimum necessary concessions, it becomes understandable why the ECK's electioneering laws have so many flaws. Conclusion
As Electoral Commission of Kenya Chairman Mr. Samuel Kivuitu mentioned, his outfit has no capacity to arbitrate election disputes even in the face of overwhelming evidence. That is the work of the law courts or whatever other mechanism may exist. In the final analysis, this was a hotly contested race where both candidates had virtually the same chance of clinching the presidential race. Some ECK officers appear to have been compromised as evidenced by some of the commissioners issuing a statement that results were doctored. This has eroded the credibility of the commission even further. But it would be simplistic to assume that rigging occurred only in PNU strong holds as even ODM is guilty of the same. In this case, it is a question of who managed to steal and not get caught. Raila Odinga and William Ruto are justifiably aggrieved and will most likely do all within their powers to see if they can clinch State House. The violence and chaos in the country are part honest expression by Kenyan's of their disappointment in the electioneering exercise and part instigation by politicians. But what is not excusable is the senseless loss of lives, by and large caused by the ODM side. Burning of women, children and the elderly in a church by ODM affiliated youth in Eldoret is not forgivable. This was followed closely by the burning of another church in Ngong yesterday. No matter what explanation ODM will give, savagery and barbarism of the nature they are displaying gives the impression of a bunch of power hungry hooligans who will stop at nothing to become president. But the blame does not stop there. Kibaki's rigging of votes in certain quarters increasingly paints him as someone desperately clinging onto power by whatever means. The senseless loss of lives due to the actions of Kibaki and Raila are not excusable and a big shame on the both of them for their selfish ways. Kenya's economy is long overdue for a total redesign. What is needed is not a maintenance engineer overseeing an outdated system. We need an architect who can mentally wipe the slate clean and position our country on a whole new level. We have total installed capacity of 1,150 MW of electricity which is what a small town in a place like Philippines consumes. Our road network is sorely inadequate and in dire need of expansion. Our rail system was done by the colonialists in the late 1800's and is still expected to serve the country. The Mombasa port was designed to handle 10 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEU's) whereas it is now handling 14 million and rapidly growing yet I have not seen a new port or berth being constructed. Such bottlenecks to the growth of our economy and with no visionary agenda from the politicians just goes to demonstrate how they are still a part of the problem rather than the solution. Is it any wonder that tribal flare ups due to competition for small unproductive lands are leading to loss of lives? Perhaps the time for principles based politics based on people able to manage an internet economy in Kenya and not political entrepreneurship is surely long overdue and I have faith that 2012 will be the year when the democratic space will be clearly defined and be upheld thereafter.
This syndicated essay by AfricanLiberty.org is written by Mr Edwin Nyanducha, Principal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and Consultancy Centre. His email is edwin.nyanducha(-at-gmail.com)
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